Handicapping the 2010 Polaris Prize Shortlist

Next month on September 20th the Polaris Prize holds their annual gala, announcing the winner of this years prize. The Polaris prize has been given out each year since 2006 to the best Canadian album based solely on artistic merit released in the last year. While it started out slowly, it has quickly become a big deal, possibly even outpacing the Junos for the most prestigious music prize in Canada.

Last year I correctly predicted the winner, Fucked Up, as soon as they had announced the 40 album long list. This year I am taking that one step further, ranking and giving odds to each album. There is nothing scientific about this, but I feel my instinct should be good enough. After all I rack up 40K plays/year on last.fm alone from 2000+ artists, and finally I have 262 hours of music from last year and 189 already this year (on pace for 300).

TSOL by Shad
Clearly the favorite, everything about this album shouts that it will win....and that was before I saw the video for "Rose Garden". Shad has released the best hip-hop album that no one has heard. A google search last month showed only a handful of reviews, all from Canada. This is second shortlist in 4 years and still no respect from the rest of the world. His wordplay is so precise and his flow is perfect on each song. The "Rose Garden" video makes him almost a lock. The video plays backwards showing things he references in the lyric, then halfway through it runs forward now referencing different lyrics with the same action. The video is an artistic achievement in its own right. "Yaa I Get It" see Shad as his best with wordplay, puns abound but they never seem heavy, always witty.

Sainthood by Tegan and Sara
This album is basically tied for second in my mind, but has the slightest edge because a female act has not won the award yet. It could be held back by the judges not having heard all the bonus tracks, which are some of the best on the album (especially the "hurry, hurry, hurry" of "Wrists"). The duo is almost constantly nominated for a Juno, but has yet to win. The songs, written separately by each sister, then combined into the album, play off each beautifully. I tend to like Sara's song better, but that is a case of personality not musicianship. This album sounds like the most esoteric concept album about relationships I have ever heard, if that is the case. Whatever the case, its a strong contender with its indie pop bonafides.

Nice, Nice, Very Nice by Dan Mangan
Dan Mangan has become a Canadian indie sensation, basically because of a single song "Robots" (and to a lesser degree, it's 80s gang showdown video). Something about the way he howls "robots need love too, they want to loved by you", cuts to the quick. The handclap party about ready to fall apart in "Sold" is too fun to ignore, and the meter of rhyme is impressive for someone not backed with beats. The album shows the difficult of life on the road ("Road Regrets" and "Tina's Glorious Comeback"), counterbalanced with introspection ("Pine For Cedars" and "Indie Queens Are Waiting"). His music is great guy with a guitar stuff, but there is so much of that out there. For him to win would make him king of singer-songwriters.

Belmundo Regal by Radio Radio
While not having the technical finesse of Shad, or the longevity of Broken Social Scene or The Sadies, Radio Radio have made a album so enjoyable you forget it's done in three languages. That could make them the dark horse, though Acadian isn't really spoken outside Quebec. (Acadian is Canada's version of Cajun) "Enfant Spécial" is the standout, with "Tomtom" and "Ej Savais Pas Mieux" shortly behind. The album has some weakspots, so it has longer odds.

Forgiveness Rock Record by Broken Social Scene
Had the Polaris Prize been around in 2002 when they released You Forgot It In People, they would have been easy winners, but this album just simply isn't on that same level. Judges are supposed to look at just the album at hand, but the shadow of that release, one of the best Canadian albums of all time, could hold them back. And they also can't win for being Canadian music icons. "Texico Bitches", "Forced to Love" and "Sentimental Xs" are great, but some songs get bogged down by length and complexity "World Sick", I'm looking at you.

Above, any album has a good chance of winning; Below, we have a serious drop off in odds, and I would be truly shocked to any of these win. Not that any of these are "bad", just that that appeal to smaller niches or have some baggage.

Heartland by Owen Pallett
Owen won in the inaugural Polaris Prize, under the moniker Final Fantasy. That is his baggage with this album, it simply doesn't stand out enough to become the first two timer winner in the 5 year history of the prize. It also sounds too similar to that previous album. Think if Andrew Bird were asked to record the soundtrack for the original Zelda game. Strings and Electronica are concoction that works wonderfully, but is not meant for beginners. The songs with Lewis in the title stand out, and had this been a concept album about him he could win, but as such it seems a little too cluttered and disconnected.

Swim by Caribou
Another previous winner, this time in 2008. The biggest problem with the album is that it sounds like something anyone with enough free time and a computer could do. Only the opening track "Odessa" is anywhere near mindblowing, and slide begins from their. The appeal of his brand of electronic psychedelia isn't broad enough for him to win, but as a former winner, I'm not counting out his appeal to certain judges from two years ago.

The Besnard Lakes Are The Roaring Night by The Besnard Lakes
While I have certain love of shoegaze, especially live, there's nothing here that stands out vividly in their sea of 6 and 7 minute long songs. The album is certainly good, indeed better than some above on this list, it just doesn't strike me as the artistic achievement of the caliber needed to win. "Albatross" encapsulates the album in a song for those interested in shoegaze.

Darker Circles by The Sadies
Think Canadian version of The Avett Brothers, even the voice sounds similiar. Like the Avetts, The Sadies are also brothers, this time named Good. Solid alt-country, with a dash of bluegrass, late 60s Beatles, and  unexpected mandolin solos. The dueling guitars one this album is fun, one recklessly sauntering along, the other plucked with precision. Again I just don't think this fits the "artistic merit" part enough, especially in a 70 year old genre. If they do win, it will likely be because of "Tell Her What I Said"

Les Chemins de Verre by Karkwa
Simply put I do not think a Quebecois album has enough appeal in the rest of Canada to win, but I would certainly enjoy being surprised.